Brisbane and Adelaide remained on a solid trajectory in terms of price growth relative to other capitals in November.
The latest Hedonic Home Value Index from CoreLogic showed that Brisbane and Adelaide were the only capitals to experience a slowdown in prices.
In fact, the monthly growth of the two cities hit a new cyclical high during the month, with Brisbane reaching 2.9% (the highest in October 2003) and Adelaide reaching 2.5% (the highest since February 1993).
These earnings translate into a monthly increase of around $ 18,500 in Brisbane and $ 13,500 in Adelaide.
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said capitals are now showing more diversity, with Brisbane and Adelaide now taking the lead as conditions in Sydney and Melbourne have slowed more sharply.
"Sydney and Melbourne have seen demand most strongly impacted by affordability pressures and negative migration from an interstate and overseas perspective," he said.
The divergence can also be seen in the dynamics of supply in these capitals.
In the four weeks leading up to November 28, the total housing supply in Adelaide was 32% below the five-year average and 33.9% below in Brisbane.
On the flip side, the housing stock has 'normalized' in Sydney and Melbourne, with listings just 2.6% below the five-year average in the former and Melbourne. over 7.9% in the second.
As home values ??continued to rise, the overall growth rate of 1.3% in November was the weakest result since January, when values ??rose 0.9%.
"Almost all of the factors that have driven home values ??up have lost their force in recent months," Lawless said.
"Fixed mortgage rates are rising, higher listings take away some urgency for buyers, affordability has become a bigger barrier to entry, and credit is less available." "
Growth trends
The housing segment continued to outperform the housing segment in terms of price growth in November.
However, the gap is narrowing, with overall home values ??increasing by 1.2% while unit values ??increasing by 0.7%.
Meanwhile, houses in the capital are now 37.9% more expensive than units in the capital, the biggest difference on record.
This discrepancy means that a capital house costs on average about $ 240,500 more than a capital unit.
In Sydney, the gap is worse, with houses costing an average of $ 523,000 more than one unit.
"With such a large difference in value between major housing types, it is no wonder that demand is gradually shifting towards higher density housing options simply because there are significantly more housing options. affordable than buying a home, ”Mr. Lawless said.
Another interesting trend is the less marked slowdown in regional areas, where the monthly pace of capital gains has continued to accelerate over the past three months.
Across regional Australia, the coastal and lifestyle markets with the Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven of NSW were the best performing, achieving the highest quarterly growth of 9.7%, followed by 8 , 9% from Hunter Valley and 7.7% from Tasmania and Launceston and the North East region.
The outlook remains positive despite concerns
While growth has slowed in most Australian real estate markets since April, the outlook has remained positive.
However, it seems that most of the factors that pushed house prices up have already come to an end.
"A further increase in the available supply should help remove more heat from the market, as buyers have more choice and less urgency," Lawless said.
The era of ultra-low rates also ends with the rise in fixed rates.
However, buyers can be reassured that variable rates are less likely to rise unless the official cash rate is raised, which is still expected to be over a year from now. .
Stricter credit policies are also expected, which could further slow real estate activity.
Yet there are favorable winds that appear to support short-term housing, notably the low cost of debt and the imminent resumption of interstate and overseas migration.
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