Falling housing starts not a sign of market slowdown – expert

The number of homes that began construction in the September quarter of last year remained healthy despite closures in the largest cities.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that in the September quarter, total housing starts fell by 16.3%.

Thomas Devitt, an economist with the Housing Industry Association (HIA), said lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne led to a sharp contraction in new single-family housing starts in the September quarter.

"The drop in new home starts in the September quarter was not reflective of a slowing market, other indicators, such as construction approvals, showing a still strong pipeline," he said.

Almost 36,000 homes began construction during the quarter.

"Despite the decline, this is still stronger than any quarter before the mid-2020 introduction of the HomeBuilder subsidy," Mr. Devitt said.

"This puts single-detached housing starts over the past 12 months at 149,345, a new record and 12.8% above the pre-HomeBuilder record of 132,377 in 1988-89. "

In addition to that, over 20,500 units began construction during the quarter.

Despite a quarterly decline, multi-family housing starts are still up 11.7% over the year.

Mr. Devitt said the current constraint on home building is not demand, but the availability of land, labor and materials.

“The shortage of labor and materials has led to a significant increase in construction times,” he said.

"Under normal circumstances, the increase in HomeBuilder projects would have translated into higher completions compared to the June 2021 quarter – however, completions were slower to respond."

"As a result, the volume of work approved but not yet started is at its highest level in more than a decade."

All states and territories reported declines in new home starts, with the Northern Territory recording the largest decline at 65.5%, followed by Western Australia 28%, Queensland (24 .6%) and Tasmania (24.2%).

The rest of the states saw declines of around 8% to 12%.

Meanwhile, some states saw gains in multi-unit housing starts in the quarter, with Tasmania seeing a whopping 240% growth, followed by Western Australia (37.2% ) and Victoria (17%).

The Northern Territory also recorded the largest decline in multi-unit housing starts at 46.7%, followed by the Australian Capital Territory (42.4%).

Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales also saw significant declines in housing starts, of around 35%.

Mr Devitt said construction is still booming despite an overall decline in housing starts, supported by historically low interest rates and the pandemic pushing households towards a lower density of living.

“Good employment conditions, rising house prices and consumer confidence also continue to support housing demand,” he said.

Photo by @d_mccullough on Unsplash.

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