The Reserve Bank of Australia expects an anemic housing supply next year, which could lead to a decline in investment – and an increase in residential prices while demand continues to increase.
Housing construction in Australia would likely remain in the doldrums until it finishes next year, said RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle at the time. A speech delivered at the Australian Investment Conference of CFA Societies in Sydney.
"Because of the long lead times for high-density construction, the supply response will likely be slow.The difficult conditions in terms of loans to developers may mean that it is Even longer, growing demand without a significant supply response will lead to greater price response, "he said.
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While housing demand is expected to increase, Ms. Debelle said that investment in housing could fall again by 7% next year.
"This directly subtracts about one percentage point of GDP growth from peak to trough," he said.
The housing sector is an important part of the Australian economy, which stands at $ 1.95 billion, with residential construction accounting for about 2% of total employment and 6% gross domestic product (GDP).
A recent study by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) confirms Debelle's predictions that the slowdown in construction is not expected to be in full swing until the middle of next year. The study also forecasts a shortage of apartments by 2020.
"According to our calculations, the decline in residential construction comes at a time when the excess supply of housing is relatively low.Despite the strong expansion of recent years, residential construction is below average compared to to population growth, "explained the economist of the CBA. Kristina Clifton told the Australian Financial Review.
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Under-supply is expected to put upward pressure on housing prices, which, according to Clifton, would increase "the attractiveness of new developments".
"The victory of the electoral coalition, the central bank rate cuts and changes made by APRA to the indicators of the state of operation have led to a recovery in the housing market. moderate gains on housing prices in the second half of 2019 and 2020, "she said. ]
A recent analysis of the Housing Industry Association indicates that Australia's stable population growth could revive a rapidly changing residential construction activity.
"Stable population growth is a welcome development for the residential construction industry as it will support this industry as it will rebalance to a new level of equilibrium," said the company. HIA economist, Angela Lillicrap.
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