Those planning to invest funds in the city of Melbourne may be forced to listen, as divergent perspectives on the city's housing market appeared early in the year.
According to CoreLogic's and Moody's Analytics' fourth-quarter Housing Outlook report, Melbourne is expected to beat Sydney's housing crisis and become the worst city in Australia in terms of falling housing prices in 2019 .
The study predicted a decline in housing prices of 3.3% in Sydney and 6% in Melbourne, mainly due to the performance of the downtown markets.
The forecast follows the downward trend of the housing market in Sydney, which had slipped 5.8% in 2018 after rising by 12.8% in 2017. However, the capital is expected to recover slightly in terms of growth. the value of apartments (which fell by 2.9%). % last year), according to an article published by realestate.com.au.
"The peaks and troughs of previous cycles have been steeper for houses, reflecting in part the difficulty of unlocking new sources of supply; Conversely, the supply of apartments tends to outstrip that of homes in Sydney, "said Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody's Analytics.
According to Ell, the supply of housing in and around the city center, as well as in suburban homes, is significant because of the transfer of land and the removal of certain development restrictions. This will contribute to the expected slowdown in 2018 and 2019.
Moody's also reported that values ​​in east-central Melbourne had declined 12.5% ​​from their peak in July 2017, while those in the south-central and subway homes decreased by 11.3% and 8.3%, respectively.
Realestate.com.au Chief economist Nerida Conisbee, in an interview with news.com.au, contradicts negative forecasts for Melbourne, pointing out that the capital of Victoria is unlikely to come to terms with Sydney's recession.
She said realestate.com.au would release new numbers next week, which would defeat CoreLogic's predictions.
"Our numbers show that the economic downturn is not as severe as that of CoreLogic. Since its peak, we have seen a drop of 5.7 in Sydney and 2.5% in Melbourne since much less of a decline, "she said.
Conisbee said that Sydney had already passed Melbourne and that this situation should last for six months. In addition, the decline in buyer activity is still greater in Sydney than in Melbourne.
The demand for housing in Melbourne is encouraging and many of its suburbs are on the list of most consulted views by list, she said. These include Red Hill and Middle Park. As a result, although prices are falling steadily in Sydney, neighborhoods in Melbourne are able to delay downgrades.
Conisbee also said that some areas of Melbourne had even seen price increases in the last 12 months, particularly in the west of the city, which had increased 2.2%.
"Not all areas of Melbourne are doing well and there are many more forces in Melbourne than in Sydney," she said.
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