When trading opened in 2019, investors simply hoped that shares would cause a revival from the terrible fourth quarter of 2018. But Apple (NASDAQ 🙂 spoiled almost everything.
Shares fell by more than 32% between a record high in September 2018 and the end of the year. It fell a further 10% on January 3, following the announcement that the first quarter fiscal results would be weak, which would drag the entire stock market down.
Subsequently, Apple and the US stock market recovered in general, often deftly and, in the fourth quarter, powerful. With two trading days left in 2019, the, currently an increase of 29.25%, looks like its best year since 2013 and possibly 1997.
Dow Jones Weekly TTM
They increase by 22.8%. The and indexes could all see their best years since 2009.
Shares remained stable vs.. headwind; Technical shares caused spark
Shares endured volatility in the past year due to a variety of headwinds: tweets from President Donald Trump about the US-China trade war, the Federal Reserve, the Mueller probe, and possible deposition; rising prices are one third higher than a year ago; concerns about how Facebook (NASDAQ 🙂 and other major technology companies handle privacy issues and political advertisements; and the earthing of Boeing & # 39; s (NYSE 🙂 737 MAX after two crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, killed 346 people.
2020 can also be strong. There will be challenges, such as whether big money thinks high stock prices are a problem.
The catalysts for the 2019 recovery were clearly technological stocks.
AAPL Weekly TTM
Apple, Microsoft (NASDAQ :), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ :), NVIDIA (NASDAQ :), Facebook, Qualcomm (NASDAQ 🙂 have all risen more than 50%. It has risen almost 61%.
Alphabet (NASDAQ 🙂 and Amazon.com (NASDAQ 🙂 look like slackers, "only" with 30% and 24% respectively.
Various factors outside of technology combined to produce this boff profit:
The reduction of trade tensions between the US and China with a possible phase one trade agreement to be signed in January. China is a huge export market for agricultural products and computer chips. That is no guarantee that all other and more complicated problems will be solved.
Lower interest rates after the Federal Reserve realized that the trade struggle hurt economies around the world and US exports. (The cynic might claim that the Fed was fed up with Trump's tweets.) However, the yield ended Friday at 1.87%, 30% less than at the end of 2018. and the shares have risen more than 20%.
A decent domestic economy with consumer spending stable to strong. Hence strong results and rising share prices for, among others, Home Depot (NYSE :), Lowe & # 39; s (NYSE :), McDonald & # 39; s (NYSE 🙂 and Sherwin-Williams (NYSE :). Investors see Netflix (NASDAQ :), a 37% increase, endured by the competitive storm caused by Disney (NYSE :), Apple (NASDAQ 🙂 and others.
The technical boom accompanied an impressive rally in financial stocks. The Financial Select Sector SPDR® ETF (NYSE 🙂 has increased by 29% this year. It finally recovered all the losses it suffered during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and jumped above its old record peak in 2007.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE :), the largest US bank by assets, has increased by 42%. Goldman Sachs (NYSE 🙂 has increased by 38%.
Yet there were those who stayed behind
There have been some losers. Boeing, with just 2.4%, had risen by no less than 38% on March 2, just before the 737 MAX crisis. Although the CEO has been fired, there is still no timetable for resolving the aircraft's problems and re-certifying the aircraft. United Airlines (NASDAQ 🙂 has taken the aircraft out of its schedule until at least June 4.
WAG Weekly TTM
Pharmacy giant Walgreen Boots Alliance (NASDAQ :), was the weakest Dow share of the past year and the third worst performer among the NASDAQ 100 shares. The company is currently looking for ways to go private.
Traditional retailers have had a hard time, under pressure from the power of online giant Amazon (NASDAQ :). Macy & # 39; s (NYSE 🙂 is almost 45% off. Nordstrom (NYSE 🙂 drops by more than 12%, but enjoys a rebound of 21% in the fourth quarter. Target (19459005) NYSE 🙂 has risen by 96%, the fourth best of all stocks.
The conventional wisdom is that 2020 could be a good year, although predictions are usually good. Nevertheless, the three most important factors – lower trade tensions, lower interest rates, a stable domestic economy – remain in force after 31 December. That's a good sign, but US equities start 2020 with some headwinds.
First, 2019 was opened with the recovery of the fourth quarter of 2018 slump. The coming year will open with key indices not only high, but at technically overbought level, and there is a good chance of a market correction somewhere in the first quarter.
Subsequently, part of the excitement of 2019 was built around the bustle in the market for initial public offers. But the most anticipated IPO & # 39; s – Uber (NYSE :), LYFT (NASDAQ 🙂 and WeWork – proved problematic. That will throw a fall on the IPO market in the future.
UBER Weekly TTM
Uber and Lyft have fallen 33% and 36%, respectively, compared to where their IPOs have been opened. While struggling to achieve profitability, they urgently need access to capital markets to expand.
The WeOork IPO was never even launched. The business plan made no sense to anyone, especially to investors in the IPO, which was eventually withdrawn.
… and some upcoming risks & issues
Finally, there is the upcoming elections, including for the president, a third of the Senate and the entire Lower House. If the House Debate about accusing Trump is any indication, it will be especially bitter.
Trump & # 39; s campaign will say that choosing democrats will dampen the economy, although the stock market under Barack Obama outperformed the market under Trump, with all of their inaugurations as starting dates for comparison.
And, if you assume that the stock market is looking ahead, it is reasonable to say that Wall Street expects a Trump re-election.
???
The remarkable artists of 2019
Among the stocks with great 2019 performances from Friday were components of the:
S&P 500 + 29%
Leaders
Advance Micro Devices (AMD) + 150%
Lam Research (NASDAQ 🙂 + 116%
KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ 🙂 + 99%
Target (19459005) NYSE 🙂 + 96%
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE 🙂 + 94%
Apple (NASDAQ 🙂 is in 11th place in this list, Microsoft (NASDAQ 🙂 49th and Facebook (NASDAQ :), + 58.8% is 46th.
Laggards
ABIOMED NASDAQ 🙂 -48%
Macy & # 39; s (M) -45%.
TripAdvisor (NASDAQ 🙂 -44%.
Macerich (NYSE 🙂 -39%
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE 🙂 -35%
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE + 23%
Leaders
Apple (NASDAQ 🙂 + 84%
Microsoft (NASDAQ 🙂 + 57%
Visa (NYSE 🙂 + 44%
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE 🙂 + 43%
United Technologies (NYSE 🙂 + 41%
Laggards
Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ 🙂 -14%
Pfizer (19459005) NYSE 🙂 -10%
3M (NYSE 🙂 -7%
Boeing (NYSE 🙂 + 2%
Exxon Mobil (NYSE 🙂 + 2.5%
NASDAQ 100 + 38.6%
Leaders
Advance Micro Devices (AMD) + 150.2%
Lam Research (NASDAQ 🙂 + 116%
MercadoLibre [19459004[[] NASDAQ :)) + 104%
Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ 🙂 + 100%
KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ 🙂 + 99%
Apple (NASDAQ 🙂 also did not reach the top 5 on this list, but it represents 11.4% of the index. The 84% gain therefore contributed around 25% to the total index gain. Microsoft's 57% gain is worth almost 6% of the index's gain.
Laggards
Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ 🙂 -26.5%
Baidu (NASDAQ 🙂 -20%
Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ 🙂 -14%
American Airlines Group ]] (NASDAQ 🙂 -11%
Expedia (19459005) NASDAQ 🙂 -4%
NASDAQ COMPOSITION + 34.5%.
Leaders
Bridgeline Digital (NASDAQ 🙂 + 722%
ArQule (19459005) NASDAQ 🙂 + 624%
Durect (NASDAQ 🙂 + 575%
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ 🙂 + 422.8%
The Medicines Company (NASDAQ 🙂 + 343%
Laggards
Sellas Life Sciences (NASDAQ 🙂 -93%
Novavax (19459005) NASDAQ 🙂 -89%
Kirklands (19459005] NASDAQ 🙂 -87%
Ocean Power Technologies (NASDAQ 🙂 -87%
Ascena Retail Group (NASDAQ 🙂 -85%
